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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-29T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-29T02:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32313/-1
CME Note: Wide, faint CME first seen by SOHO LASCO C2 in the NW beginning at 2024-07-29T02:00Z, as well as in later frames by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2. A possible source of this eruption is a small region of dimming and opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211 beginning at approximately 2024-07-28T23:00Z located in the vicinity of AR 3762 (S11W46) exhibiting more Northern deflection. This eruption may occur near the eruption associated with CME: 2024-07-29T02:12Z. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T16:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -3820.15 hour(s)
Difference: -1.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

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